More than the polling results of individual opposition parties, the question of whether a comprehensive left-wing alliance can be formed has emerged as the crucial issue in terms of evaluating the potential for a government change in 2014. It is still unclear whether the combined support of the left-wing parties would be enough to defeat Fidesz. What appears clear, however, is that none of the left-wing parties is likely to achieve victory on its own. MSZP for its part wants an alliance very badly. LMP, however, remains deeply steeped in its rejection of the Socialists, and also strives to establish itself as a serious counterpole to the erstwhile leftist behemoth. It appears torn by its desire to see Orbán defeated and the painful insight that without MSZP that’s an impossibility. That is also reinforced again by a recent electoral study published by Gordon Bajnai’s foundation, which posits that the Fidesz government can b e sent packing in 2014, but most likely only with an electoral alliance. Bajnai, of course, is a major contender for leading such an alliance, but his own reluctance to step in may also stem from doubts about his ability to actually unite the fractious left at least for a while.
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Policy Solutions is a progressive political research institute based in Budapest. It was founded in 2008 and it is committed to the values of liberal democracy, solidarity, equal opportunity, sustainability and European integration. The focus of Policy Solutions’ work is on understanding political processes in Hungary and the European Union. Among the pre-eminent areas of our research are the investigation of how the quality of democracy evolves, the analysis of factors driving euroscepticism, populism and the far-right, and election research.
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